THE WHITE FACTOR – AT 11:58 A.M. ET: It's a delicate subject, race. But it's an inevitable subject in any election campaign. Does Hillary Clinton have a race problem? No, I don't mean the kind you're thinking. Another kind of race problem. From The Wall Street Journal:
One finding in this week’s Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll stands out for its potential to reframe the presidential election: The dramatically dim view that white voters—particularly white men—have of Hillary Clinton.
One prospect for Mrs. Clinton’s campaign has been that she could expand President Barack Obama‘s winning coalition by retaining his firm hold on minority voters while improving on his weak showing among white voters. Mr. Obama won a mere 39% of white voters in 2012 – the smallest share of any winning presidential candidate in a two-person race.
Even if Democrats can’t match Mr. Obama’s strong 93% support among African-Americans, or 71% among Latinos, many strategists have argued, the party will be in good shape in 2016. Because minority voters are a growing presence in the electorate each cycle, the Democratic nominee can win a smaller share of those voters and still build a comfortable majority.
But what if the Democrats can’t match Mr. Obama’s meager share of white voters? What if they underperform his 39% showing?
That prospect has seemed remote. But as Mrs. Clinton steams toward her party’s nomination, it’s now a possibility that merits consideration—and one that could force some reworking of the electoral math.
As WSJ’s Peter Nicholas wrote on Tuesday, this week’s Journal/NBC News poll found that 64% of white men hold an unfavorable view of Mrs. Clinton, compared with just 26% who see her in a positive light. That’s a gap of 38 points.
COMMENT: We are now in the race, gender, and ethnicity generation. Young people are taught to think in those terms. But it's the proverbial two-edged sword. Sometimes the group that seems to be fading gets good and angry, and turns up at the polls. This could be Hillary's nightmare.
I sure hope so.
October 25, 2015 |